On this week’s episode, JCK editor-in-chief Victoria Gomelsky and news director Rob Bates discuss potential ramifications of Botswana’s regime change for De Beers and American jewelers. Next, Victoria recounts her adventures in Geneva, where she was a juror for the Grand Prix d’Horlogerie de Genève, the world’s most prestigious watchmaking competition. Finally, the pair shed light on what to expect this holiday sales season—and in the year ahead. Hint: Buckle your seat belt.

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Episode Credits
Hosts: Rob Bates and Victoria Gomelsky
Producer and engineer: Natalie Chomet
Editor: Riley McCaskill

Show Notes
02:52 A power shift in Botswana
09:04 Inside the “Oscars of watchmaking”
17:58 Holiday sales forecast

Show Recap
A power shift in Botswana
Victoria and Rob kick off their conversation with election news from Botswana: Duma Boko defeated Mokgweetsi Masisi, to become the country’s new president. Boko, a Harvard Law School graduate and former human rights lawyer, leans more to the left politically than his predecessor, according to Rob.

Masisi’s term was marked by stormy contract negotiations with De Beers. Boko has said the negotiations have stalled, with De Beers threatening to walk away from the bargaining table. Nevertheless, “the De Beers–Botswana relationship is probably the most important relationship for both the country and the company,” Rob says, and the two are so intertwined that it would be difficult for either to sever their partnership.

What does the regime change mean for American jewelers? Both the Botswana government and De Beers say they’re committed to signing a new contract, and “the new president has definitely taken a more conciliatory note” with De Beers, Rob notes. On the other hand, Botswana isn’t known as a profitable place to cut diamonds, and Boko’s promise to raise the minimum wage in his country could make its diamond factories less economical.

Both Victoria and Rob had interviewed Masisi when he was president and considered him as a charismatic and forceful presence. Rob hopes Boko will be equally visible and communicative with the media.

Inside the “Oscars of watchmaking”
Victoria fills listeners in on the 24th edition of the Grand Prix d’Horlogerie de Genève, a competition known as the “Oscars of watchmaking.” She served as one of 30 jury members, choosing winning timepieces from finalists in 15 categories. Her peers included watchmakers, retailers, and power players from around the globe.

During the daylong judging process in Geneva, jurors were sorted into groups, with some assigned as “residents” of a certain table while others, like Victoria, became “nomads” who moved from table to table. The system “really ensures that you meet everyone there and get to chat with them,” she says. She found the experience fascinating and enjoyed debating such questions as what makes a timepiece a women’s watch or a men’s watch and how best to judge each category.

“What a privilege and honor it was to be a jury member in this illustrious group of talented, smart, interesting, thoughtful people,” says Victoria, who presented the Ladies’ Watch prize to Van Cleef & Arpels at a lavish ceremony a few days later.

Holiday sales forecast
’Tis the season…so Rob and Victoria offer insights about what the jewelry business can expect for the holidays. Rob points out that it’s been a tough year for wholesalers of both lab-grown and natural diamonds, with the two sectors going head-to-head. However, people are relieved the U.S. election is over, and there’s increasing consensus that the economy is good, he says. As a result, consumer confidence numbers have risen in the past month. “That’s generally a good sign for holiday spending,” Rob says.

With so much global uncertainty, there’s bound to be turbulence ahead. This could have a silver lining for the industry: “In times of uncertainty and turmoil, people gravitate towards sentimental gifts” like jewelry, Rob says.

In Geneva, there was much talk about the state of the watch business and the fact that “the gravy train has ended,” says Victoria. Swiss export figures for 2024 won’t come out until January, but she expects to see a decline, largely because of weak sales in China. Still, she points out that sales forecasts may have become overly optimistic after years of “crazy” double-digit growth. “It was never a realistic expectation for that to carry on,” Victoria says.

Now people are grappling with how to realign their expectations for more steady, sustainable growth. The downturn will likely affect bigger brands more than small independent ones, which make limited product and worry more about supply shortages than about selling out their inventory.

Rob recently attended a Women’s Jewelry Association (WJA) event and was struck by how much is in flux in the industry, from leadership changes in the U.S. and Botswana, to a new CEO taking the helm at Signet, to De Beers being up for sale. What does it all mean for The Jewelry District’s audience? Fasten your seat belts and brace for an interesting 2025. “It’s going to be a wild ride,” Rob predicts.

Any views expressed in this podcast do not reflect the opinion of JCK, its management, or its advertisers.

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