While everyone is happy that things are getting back to normal, post-pandemic, for the jewelry industry that’s a bit of a double-edged sword.

For one, travel is back, and that’s traditionally been a strong competitor for jewelry. On top of that, consumers are coping with inflation and an uncertain economic outlook.

There are still positive signs out there. The wedding boom looks like it will continue into 2023. And the eternal cliché about how affluent customers will always spend and have money appears to be holding true, with many high-end retailers expecting strong holiday spending.

But the industry at large is more uncertain. Most people I’ve talked to say that it’s “too soon to tell” how jewelry will fare this season. That’s concerning, considering we’re approaching the home stretch, with Christmas just 10 days away. (Feel free to report how you’re finding holiday sales in the comments.)

The reports I’ve heard say that business picked up in December, after it dropped in October—a trend noted by SpendingPulse and others. By some accounts, business stayed down in November, though Black Friday apparently saw solid foot traffic.

As Signet CEO Gina Drosos pointed out to me last week, in 2021 consumers shopped early because they were worried about supply-chain issues. This year, signs are pointing to a more traditional shopping pattern, with the lion’s share of holiday shopping done at the last minute.

Of course, both 2020 and 2021 were record jewelry years, with such large sales increases they almost felt unreal. That’s what happens when consumers have a lot of money and limited places to spend it.

In 2022, sales held up until around the middle of the year. Most realists expected that jewelry sales this year would fall. The only question was how much.

Clearly, the industry is in much better shape than it was pre-COVID—an outcome few predicted when the pandemic began. Balance sheets are stronger, customer lists are longer, and retailers have become a lot more tech savvy.

Going forward, the jewelry business will have to fight for its share of the customer pie, just like it had to before COVID, and just like it’s had to do every year I’ve been covering it. That’s not bad, necessarily. Just normal.

Photo: Getty Images

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